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Here is a look at six teams that will be listed as underdogs throughout the season. This article contains certain trends, numbers and statistics to help you make picks on during the fall. In case you missed it, here is our first edition, which showed just about all the numbers you'll need for the teams that will most likely be listed as the favorites of the league this season.
Glossary and Notes:
SU: straight up wins or losses; no spread. To bet on a SU winner, one would bet the money line. Ex. Wisconsin had 8 SU wins and 6 SU losses. If Wisconsin is -120 on the money line, it would cost $120 to win $100.
ATS: A team's record against the spread; bookmakers create a point spread for each game. Ex. Ohio State -7 versus Michigan; if Ohio State wins by 8 or more points, they cover. If the Buckeyes win by less than 7 or lose, then they did not cover the spread.
O/U: Over or under the total that bookmakers set for that particular game. Ex. The total in the Penn St- Michigan St game is set at 46.5, if the final score is 27-24 then the game goes over the total.
Favorite: The team that bookmakers think will win a particular game. Ex. Ohio State is -3 over Wisconsin; Ohio State is the favorite.
Underdog: The team that bookmakers think will lose a particular game. Ex. Wisconsin is +3 against Ohio State; Wisconsin is the underdog.
Data: I got this information from Covers and Team Rankings, both very useful databases.
*Best bets are in bold italics
2012 Standings
|
Leaders |
SU | SU Conf. | ATS | O/U |
| Ohio St | 12-0 | 8-0 | 7-5-0 | 6-6 |
| Penn St | 8-4 | 6-2 | 9-2-1 | 7-5 |
| Wisconsin | 8-6 | 5-4 | 6-8-0 | 8-5 |
| Purdue | 6-7 | 3-5 | 6-7-0 | 8-4 |
| Indiana | 4-8 | 2-6 | 6-6-0 | 8-3 |
| Illinois | 2-10 | 0-8 | 3-9-0 | 6-5 |
| Legends | SU | SU Conf. | ATS | O/U |
| Nebraska | 10-4 | 7-2 | 6-7-1 | 8-4 |
| Michigan | 8-5 | 6-2 | 6-7-0 | 7-6 |
| Northwestern | 10-3 | 5-3 | 12-1-0 | 5-7 |
| Michigan St | 7-6 | 3-5 | 5-8-0 | 2-10 |
| Minnesota | 6-7 | 2-6 | 6-7-0 | 5-6 |
| Iowa | 4-8 | 2-6 | 4-8-0 | 4-7 |
Michigan State Spartans
|
2012 Statistics |
||||||
| SU | ATS | Home | Away | Grass | Turf | |
| ATS | 7-6 | 5-8-0 | 1-7-0 | 4-1-0 | 1-7-0 | 4-1-0 |
| O/U | Home | Away | Grass | Turf | Total | |
| O/U | 2-10-1 | 1-7-0 | 1-3-1 | 1-7-0 | 1-3-1 | 36.3 |
Win- loss trends since 2008
- Following a loss, the Spartans won their following game 63.2% of the time by an average of 8 points per game.
- Michigan State held a 27-14 record SU against the Big Ten.
- The Spartans won 74.3% (26-9-0) of their games at home by an average of 11.5 points per game.
- Taking care of business: When listed as a favorite, Michigan State recorded a 36-8 record SU.
Against the spread trends since 2008
- Bookmakers did their best, as the Spartans had a 32-32-0 record ATS in that time period.
- Michigan State has had the third worst record out of the Big Ten teams as an underdog with a 10-11 record ATS (47.6%).
- As a home favorite, Michigan State has covered the spread only 40% (12-18-0 ATS) of the time.
- Troubles at home: Since 2008, the Spartans have had the second worst record at home ATS at 14-20-0, to make matters worse, they went 1-7-0 ATS last year in East Lansing.
Over/ under trends since 2008
- Following a win, the Spartans went under the total in 57.5% of their games, second most compared to the rest of the conference.
- The Spartans went under the total in 58.8% of their home games by an average of 4.8 points, both the second most compared to the rest of the Big Ten.
- In four games as a home underdog, the Spartans went over the total in all of those games
- Defensive Battles in East Lansing: Michigan State went under the total in 20 of their last 30 games as a home favorite by a whopping 6.7 points per game, both the most compared to the rest of the conference.
Purdue Boilermakers
| 2012 Statistics | ||||||
| SU | ATS | Home | Away | Grass | Turf | |
| ATS | 6-7 | 6-7-0 | 3-4-0 | 3-3-0 | 4-4-0 | 2-3-0 |
| O/U | Home | Away | Grass | Turf | Total | |
| O/U | 8-4-0 | 5-1-0 | 3-3-0 | 5-2-0 | 3-2-0 | 59.9 |
Win/ loss trends since 2008
- The Boilermakers have won only 41.9% (26-36-0) of their games.
- When listed as a favorite, Purdue had a 19-6 record SU and won those games by an average of 12.7 points per game.
- When listed as an underdog, the Boilermakers won only six of their last 30 games SU by an average of two touchdowns per game; the third worst mark compared to the rest of the Big Ten.
- The Boilermakers have won only 37.5% (15-25) of their Big Ten games SU.
- Road warriors? Not so much: Purdue has won only six of their last 25 games SU on the road and have lost those games by an average of 11.5 points per game.
Against the spread trends since 2008
- On the road, Purdue has been listed as a favorite five times, yet they only covered one of those games.
- Purdue has only covered 33.3% of their games following a bye week, the second worst percentage in the Big Ten.
- Where is the consistency? Following a win, the Boilermakers have the worst record ATS in the Big Ten at 6-14-1 (30%).
Over/ under trends since 2008
- Following a win, Purdue has gone over the total 57.9% of the time.
- When Purdue is listed as a favorite, they have surpassed the total 60.9% of the time, the second best percentage in the conference. They went over the total by an average margin of 8.3 points, the highest in the conference.
- When the Boilermakers are listed as an underdog, they went under the total 53% of the time by an average of a field goal.
- Home blowouts/ shootouts: The Boilermakers went over the total in 12 out of 18 games (66.7%) by an average of 10.5 points per game, the highest average in the Big Ten and the second highest in the country compared to other teams with at least 18 games.
Minnesota Golden Gophers
|
2012 Statistics |
||||||
| SU | ATS | Home | Away | Grass | Turf | |
| ATS | 6-7 | 6-7-0 | 4-3-0 | 2-4-0 | 1-0-0 | 5-7-0 |
| O/U | Home | Away | Grass | Turf | Total | |
| O/U | 5-6-1 | 2-4-0 | 3-2-1 | 1-0-0 | 4-6-1 | 46.8 |
Win/ loss trends since 2008
- The Gophers have won only 25 of their last 63 games played SU.
- Following a loss, Minnesota won their following game only 31.4% (11-24) of the time SU, the second lowest percentage compared to their Big Ten counterparts.
- The Gophers have won only 45.7% of their home games SU, second worst in the conference.
- Conference issues: Minnesota won only 12 of their last 40 Big Ten games, and they have lost by an average of 11 points per game.
Against the spread trends since 2008
- Minnesota covered 51.6% of their games, the third highest percentage in the Big Ten.
- As a favorite, the Gophers only covered 42.9% of their games, the second worst percentage in the conference.
- Not winning, but covering on the road: Minnesota covered on the road 60% of the time by an average of a field goal, but lost the game by an average of 8.9 points per game.
Over/ under trends since 2008
- Minnesota has gone under the total in 57.9% of their games when listed as a favorite.
- There are no best bets, Minnesota has split around 50% in all over/under trends since 2008.
Indiana Hoosiers
| 2012 Statistics | ||||||
| SU | ATS | Home | Away | Grass | Turf | |
| ATS | 4-8 | 6-6-0 | 3-3-0 | 3-3-0 | 0-3-0 | 6-3-0 |
| O/U | Home | Away | Grass | Turf | Total | |
| O/U | 8-3-0 | 4-1-0 | 4-2-0 | 3-0-0 | 5-3-0 | 66 |
Win/ loss trends since 2008
- The Hoosiers have won only 17 of their last 60 games SU overall, a 28.3 winning percentage.
- At home, Indiana has won only 37.5% of their games SU by an average of 3.6 points per game, both the worst in the Big Ten.
- The Hoosiers have won only five of their last 26 games on the road SU by an average of 16.8 points per game.
- In Big Ten play, Indiana has a 5-35 SU record, losing by 17.8 points per game on average, both the worst in the conference.
- Indiana losing streaks: Indiana has the worst SU record following a loss in the FBS since 2008 at 6-33 (15.4%). The Hoosiers lost these games by an average of 16.7 points per game, 7th worst in the FBS.
Against the spread trends since 2008
- Indiana went 26-30-2 ATS, failing to cover by just over a field goal at 3.7 points per game.
- After a bye week, in a very small sample (only three games) the Hoosiers went 0-3-0 ATS, losing games by an average of 30 points per game and failing to cover the spread by an average of 17 points per game.
- The Hoosiers covered 50% of their home games, the third best percentage in the conference.
- Rarely a favorite: Indiana has only been favored in 15 games since 2008, the least amount of times in the Big Ten and they covered only 42.9% of those games. By comparison, Ohio State has been favored in 49 games in the past five years.
Over/ under trends since 2008
- Following a victory, the Hoosiers went over the total in 10 out of 13 games (76.9%).
- Indiana went 18-8-0 over/under on the road and have gone over by an average of 5.1 points per game, the highest average in the conference.
- The Hoosiers went over the total 70.7% of the time by an an average of 5.6 points over the total, both the highest in the conference.
- Indiana went over the total in 26 out of their last 40 conference games.
- Flying over: Behind Wisconsin, Indiana has had the highest percentage of overs in the FBS at 65.5%, their over/under record is 36-19-2.
Iowa Hawkeyes
| 2012 Statistics | ||||||
| SU | ATS | Home | Away | Grass | Turf | |
| ATS | 4-8 | 4-8-0 | 3-4-0 | 1-4-1 | 1-2-0 | 3-6-0 |
| O/U | Home | Away | Grass | Turf | Total | |
| O/U | 4-7-0 | 3-3-0 | 1-4-0 | 0-3-0 | 4-4-0 | 42.2 |
Win/ loss trends since 2008
- Iowa won 60% of their games, boasting a 39-25 SU record in that time span.
- The Hawkeyes have won 25 of their last 35 home games SU.
- Away from home, the Hawkeyes have only won 10 of their last 24 games SU.
- Going bowling: Iowa has won 75% of their bowl games SU since 2008, covering the spread by a whopping 9 points per game.
Against the spread trends since 2008
- Iowa has covered the spread in 62.5% (5-3-0 ATS) of their games following a bye week.
- Following a win, Iowa only covered the spread 42.4% of the time.
- The Hawkeyes had the third best record ATS in the conference as an underdog at 12-9-1.
- Bouncing back: The Hawkeyes were 14-8-1 ATS (63.6%) after a loss, they covered those games by an average of 3.8 points per game.
Over/ under trends since 2008
- The Hawkeyes have had the most unders in the conference with 43.1% (25-33-3) of their games going under the total.
- Only two of Iowa's last eight games have gone over following a bye week.
- On the road, Iowa went under the total 39.1% (9-14-1) of the time, the most in the conference.
- Defensive B1G Battles: In conference play, Iowa has gone under the total 56.4% of the time by an average of 3.2 points per game, both the highest in the Big Ten.
Illinois Fighting Illini
| 2012 Statistics | ||||||
| SU | ATS | Home | Away | Grass | Turf | |
| ATS | 2-10 | 3-9-0 | 3-4-0 | 0-5-0 | 0-2-0 | 3-7-0 |
| O/U | Home | Away | Grass | Turf | Total | |
| O/U | 6-5-0 | 2-4-0 | 4-1-0 | 2-0-0 | 4-5-0 | 48.8 |
Win/ loss trends since 2008
- Illinois is 24-38 overall SU, winning just 38.7% of their games, the second worst compared to the rest of the conference.
- The Illini have won only 11 of their last 40 Big Ten games SU but have only lost by only an average of 5.2 points per game.
- The Illini only won 52.8% SU of the games in which they were favored, the worst in the conference.
- Troubles away from home: On the road, Illinois has the worst record compared to their Big Ten counterparts, going 4-18 SU.
Against the spread trends since 2008
- Illinois was the second worst team ATS going 26-35-0 overall.
- Following a loss, the Illini only covered 43.2% of their games, 16-21 ATS.
- Illinois went 13-19-0 ATS at home, a 40.6% cover percentage.
- Bet the 'dog: When listed as the favorite, the Illini went 13-23-0 (36.1%) ATS, on average they were 5.5 points from covering, both the worst in the conference.
Over/ under trends since 2008
- 56.1% (25-32-2) of Illinois' games have gone under the total, the second most in the conference.
- At home, the Illini went under the total in 57.1% of their games, the third most in the Big Ten.
- Illinois went over the total in 52% of their games as underdogs.
- Low scoring affairs: Illinois went under the total in 62.5% of the games in which they were the favorite, the second most in the FBS with at least 20+ games listed as the favorite.