Last week ATS: 7-10 (6-4 National, 1-6 B1G)
Season ATS: 65-71-3 (28-29-1 National, 37-42-2 B1G)
If you missed yesterday’s national picks for another weekend packed with quality games, you can find them here.
No. 12 Michigan State v. No. 13 Ohio State (-14.5) - 12:00 PM EST - FOX
Can we get one of those Men In Black mind eraser things so that way we don’t have any memory of Ohio State getting destroyed by Iowa? It can be the game we never speak of again.
Something about this line feels off. Of the last six meetings between the schools, the largest margin of victory came back in 2014 when Ohio State beat Michigan State 49-37. The last two meetings have been decided by a combined four points. Are we missing something?
What Vegas might be trying to bank on is people like myself who think there is no way the Spartans won’t cover this, and then Ohio State rebounds from last week’s loss and blows the doors off of Michigan State. I’m extremely aware that could happen, but I’m just not seeing it actually happening.
Michigan State isn’t just going to roll over, as they’re fighting for the Big Ten East just like Ohio State. Brian Lewerke has thrown for 400 yards in two straight games, and with the way the Buckeyes secondary is playing right now, he is catching Ohio State at the right time.
J.K. Dobbins will get more than six carries this week and J.T. Barrett won’t throw four interceptions. Ohio State ends up winning by 10 points, but Michigan State makes them work hard for the victory.
Ohio State 27, Michigan State 17
Rutgers v. No. 14 Penn State (-31) - 12:00 PM EST - Big Ten Network
It’s incredible how Penn State’s season got destroyed in just two weeks. The Nittany Lions lost to Ohio State and Michigan State by a combined four points, and now instead of the College Football Playoff, Penn State will be headed to some unimportant bowl game.
If there is any team that deserves to go to a bowl game, it might be Rutgers. The Scarlet Knights have quietly won three of their last four, and need to win two of its last three games to become bowl eligible. It’s unlikely to happen since Rutgers still also has to play Michigan State, but Chris Ash has his team headed in the right direction.
As well as Rutgers has played defense this year, I don’t think it’ll show on Saturday. Penn State has to take their frustrations out on someone eventually, and I think it’ll be the Scarlet Knights. Aside from the opening kickoff against Ohio State two weeks ago, Saquon Barkley has been largely invisible the last two games. That won’t be the case on Saturday.
Penn State 44, Rutgers 10
Indiana (-9) v. Illinois - 12:00 PM EST - Big Ten Network
Illinois is a special class of terrible. The Fighting Illini haven’t scored more than 24 points this year, and have only scored more than 20 points once in Big Ten play. I’m still kicking myself for picking Illinois to at least keep it within two touchdowns against Purdue.
Indiana has lost four straight, but at least they have some pieces where you feel like they could be productive against bad teams. I think whether it is Peyton Ramsey or Richard Lagow at quarterback, they could at least put some points on the scoreboard. With the defense Indiana has, I don’t see Illinois making it to 20 points on Saturday.
Indiana 34, Illinois 14
Nebraska v. Minnesota (-2.5) - 12:00 PM EST - FS1
The $5 Bits of Broken Chair Trophy is the only reason to care about this game.
Nebraska 21, Minnesota 20
No. 20 Iowa v. No. 8 Wisconsin (-12) - 3:30 PM EST - ABC
What Iowa did last week was amazing. As an Ohio State fan, it’s been quite a long time since the Buckeyes have suffered a beating like that in-conference. Nathan Stanley threw five touchdowns passes and it felt Josh Jackson intercepted 147 of J.T. Barrett’s passes last Saturday.
So which Iowa do we get this week? The Iowa that destroyed Ohio State, or the Iowa that scored a combined 37 points against Minnesota, Michigan Northwestern, and Michigan State?
Wisconsin is still undefeated, but they are banged up right now. Wide receiver Quintez Cephus is out for the year, and linebacker Chris Orr will miss Saturday’s game. The Badgers still have running back Jonathan Taylor, and don’t think Paul Chryst isn’t gonna feed his freshman running back.
When this line came out it felt a little too good to be true. Iowa is going to give Wisconsin a tough game, but I think Wisconsin gets a touchdown late to push this to a two touchdown result.
Wisconsin 34, Iowa 20
Michigan (-17) v. Maryland - 3:30 PM EST - Big Ten Network
Who needs to throw the football when you can run it like Michigan did last week? Karan Higdon rushed for 200 yards, and Chris Evans rushed for 191 yards in a 33-10 win over Minnesota. Higdon and Evans combined for three touchdown runs of at least 60 yards over the Golden Gophers.
Maryland just gave up 239 yards rushing to Rutgers. RUTGERS! Higdon and Evans have another big day, as Jim Harbaugh beats up on his former defensive coordinator.
Michigan 38, Minnesota 13
Purdue v. No. 25 Northwestern (-4.5) - 7:00 PM EST - ESPN2
Northwestern is quietly one of the hottest teams in the country, having won four straight games. The Wildcats have been very giving lately as well, with their last three games going to overtime. Justin Jackson is making sure he finishes out his senior season strong, as the running back has rushed for at least 150 yards twice during Northwestern’s winning streak.
It just feels like the bubble on Purdue’s season burst after the close losses to Rutgers and Nebraska. The Boilermakers got a win last week against Illinois, but everybody beats Illinois. Jeff Brohm has had a good first year in West Lafayette, but I just don’t see the Boilermakers winning two of their last three to become bowl eligible.
Even if somehow Northwestern decides to go to overtime for a fourth straight game, this line is short enough that they can still cover. The Wildcats win in regulation.
Northwestern 28, Purdue 17