Ohio State’s 2018 defensive line will be better than 2017’s

Earlier I wrote about the concept of above-replacement level talent — not just good, or really good, players, but elite players.

Football Outsiders tracks an NFL stat called Defense-adjusted Yards Above Replacement, or DYAR, that measures this. Essentially, “a player’s true value can then be measured by the level of performance he provides above that replacement level baseline.” Ohio State’s “replacement level baseline” is already above almost everyone else’s in the country — the Buckeyes were second in total team talent last season to just Alabama (and likely will be in 2018 too). But it’s still important to recruit and identify players that exceed even Ohio State’s own replacement level baseline — truly dominant players that can take over games.

In short, that’s why Ohio State’s defensive line could be even better in 2018. That’s despite losing at least three starters to the NFL from a line that ranked:

• 1st overall in adjusted line yards against the run
• 10th overall in stuff rate
• 19th in adjusted sack rate
• 1st in defensive line havoc rate

No matter how you look at it, Ohio State’s defensive line was elite last year. And now the team is left with just three scholarship defensive ends with any experience.

But the thing is that the returning talent is at a totally different level. As Nick Bosa recently said, “I think it could be the best pass-rushing unit ever.” I think he could be right.

Here’s last year’s starting defensive line:

And here’s a projected 2018 line, assuming Antwuan Jackson Jr is second-team (and not an OR player):

Next year’s defensive line, even if the experienced depth at defensive end is thin, is outrageously talented. Potentially best-in-the-country talented. Here’s how they compare:

As you can see in the chart above, the talent level was already ridiculous, but now every single starter could be among the best in the country.