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Ohio State has a 33% chance of finishing the season undefeated

Which is more than Alabama can say!

COLLEGE FOOTBALL: OCT 05 Michigan State at Ohio State Photo by Adam Lacy/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images

The Buckeye’s Battle Cry in 8-bit Nintendo style is easily the best thing to grace the Twitterverse this week. I will be spending the rest of today searching for my Game Boy Advance.


“SP+ projects zero teams with a better than 50% chance of getting to championship week unbeaten. Only five Power 5 conference teams have a better than 10% chance (Clemson 42%, Ohio State 33%, Alabama 30%, Oklahoma 21%, Georgia 15%), and the combined chance of all five teams going 12-0 is just 0.1%. Heck, they have only a 14% chance of all going 11-1 or better. There are plenty of loss opportunities on the horizon.”

- Bill Connelly, ESPN

As we enter Week 7 of the college football season, 16 undefeated FBS teams remain, and Bill Connelly of ESPN says not one of those teams has a better than 50% chance of getting to championship week undefeated.

Out of the five teams who have a better chance of going unbeaten, there’s almost no chance (0.1% chance to be exact) all five will make it to the end with a “0” at the end of their record.

So the question is: who’s gonna take the L?

Only one team defeated the odds last season. Clemson finished 15-0 after beating Alabama in the CFP national championship. Alabama, Notre Dame, and UCF were undefeated until their bowl games. Notre Dame lost to Clemson in the CFB semifinals and UCF lost to LSU in the Fiesta Bowl.

You can almost always count on Ohio State to lose at least one game each season. Last year it was Purdue. The year before that, it was Oklahoma and Iowa. Ohio State’s last undefeated season was in 2012 (aka the year that didn’t really count). Currently, the Buckeyes are 6-0 and if history is any indication, they are bound to fall victim to someone on the horizon. My guess? Two other guys on the undefeated list: Penn State and Wisconsin.

Here’s what Connelly predicted:

Week 9: Wisconsin at Ohio State -- 70% win probability for OSU

Week 13: Penn State at Ohio State -- 71% win probability for OSU

Hypothetical Big Ten title game: Wisconsin vs. Ohio State -- 65% win probability for OSU

Hypothetical Big Ten title game: Wisconsin vs. Penn State -- 51% win probability for UW

Ohio State is a healthy favorite in both the regular-season games and the hypothetical Wisconsin rematch. The odds of winning all three, however? Just 32%.

The other four teams who have a better than 10% chance of going undefeated have some unbeaten matchups of their own. Georgia plays Florida (6-0) on Nov. 2, Alabama has LSU (5-0) on Nov. 9, and Clemson hosts Wake Forest (5-0) on Nov. 16. Alabama will likely face Florida or Georgia in the SEC title game, depending on how those matchups play out. Oklahoma goes to Baylor (5-0) on Nov. 16th.

Obviously, the list of 16 undefeated teams will dwindle no matter what, and hopefully the Buckeyes aren’t the cause of that. Based on how they’ve performed thus far, I think the odds are in our favor.


If we must have an Ohio State bye week, at least we have Baker Mayfield vs. Nick Bosa as entertainment. Mayfield isn’t known for keeping his thoughts to himself, however this comment is a little surprising considering Mayfield didn’t have much to say about the celebration right after it happened.

“I didn’t know that until I was informed before I got up here,” Mayfield said during his post game interview. ”Good for him. Good play.”

My guess is he logged onto Twitter shortly after and realized the celebration received a lot more attention than he thought. On top of that, during his post-game interview, Bosa told the world that he had been taunting Mayfield all night long.

Mayfield could not have liked that. Regardless of whose side you’re on, you gotta admit this is good content. #TeamBosa


Speaking of Nick Bosa, the former Ohio State defensive end was named NFC Defensive Player of the Week following his dominant performance in the 49ers 31-3 win against the Cleveland Browns on Monday night.

Bosa had two sacks, three quarterback hits, four quarterback hurries, one forced fumble, one fumble recovery, and four total tackles.

“I was doing the same thing that I have been doing, just rushing my butt off,” Bosa said in his post game interview. “The fact that all the things came together for me to get a couple of sacks. A sack is a number of things; it is not just somebody winning a rush. My job is to win the rush and do my job. The DBs job is to cover and make him hold it a couple extra seconds and the rest of the guys stay in their rush lanes to keep him contained in the pocket. So there is a lot that goes into those sacks.”

There hasn’t been a single player on the San Francisco 49ers in the last 25 years to record 2 sacks, one forced fumble and one fumble recovery in the same game. Bosa accomplished that feat in his third regular season game. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯


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