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Last week ATS: 3-8-1 (2-5 National, 1-3-1 B1G)
Season ATS: 56-44-3 (26-21 National, 30-23-3 B1G)
It was only a matter of time before the other shoe dropped. I had an uneasy feeling on Saturday morning going into the games that it was going to be a bad week. Unfortunately the bad vibes came to life. Maybe next year I’ll take a week off when the Buckeyes do.
National games:
All point spreads are from DraftKings Sportsbook
No. 16 Wake Forest (-3) v. Army - 12:00 PM EST - CBS Sports Network
Who had Wake Forest as the last unbeaten team in the ACC? If you say you did then you are lying. To stay perfect on the season, the Demon Deacons head to West Point to take on one of the most frustrating teams in the country to try and game plan for. Just ask Wisconsin, who edged the Black Knights 20-14 in Madison on Saturday night.
Unlike last week when Army really only had to prepare to try and shutdown the run since Wisconsin can’t do much throwing the football, Wake Forest has a more balanced offense than the Badgers do. The Demon Deacons have been playing with fire recently, winning each of their last two games by a field goal. I was trying to find any reason I could take take Army to spring the upset here, but I keep coming back to the fact that the Black Knights are 0-36 against ranked teams since 1980.
Wake Forest 28, Army 17
No. 8 Oklahoma State v. Iowa State - 3:30 PM EST - FOX
I think I’m going to need to take several cold showers after this posts since I feel dirty that I’m going to be backing a Mike Gundy team. Texas was about to blow the doors off the Cowboys then somehow the Longhorns just fell apart. If only that would’ve happened so I wouldn’t have even had to worry about picking this game.
After beating Kansas State and Kansas, Matt Campbell is now the governor of Kansas. Not only is the defense of the Cyclones nasty, they also have Brock Purdy and Breece Hall running the offense. Even though Oklahoma State has opponents down so far this year, Casey Thompson and Bijan Robinson had them on the ropes last week. Purdy and Hall do what Texas couldn’t and hands Oklahoma State their first loss of the season in a game that comes down to the wire.
Iowa State 24, Oklahoma State 21
No. 10 Oregon v. UCLA (-2.5) - 3:30 PM EST - ABC
It feels like both UCLA and Oregon peaked way too early this year. The Bruins took down LSU in their second game of the season, while Oregon came to Columbus and beat the Buckeyes a week later. It has been a struggle for both teams since then, as UCLA has lost two games, while Oregon fell in overtime to Stanford, and looked pretty unimpressive last week against Cal.
This will be the third time Chip Kelly has faced his former team as UCLA’s head coach. So far Kelly is 0-2 against the Ducks. That all changes this year, especially since this is the first time Kelly has hosted Oregon. These two teams are almost mirrors of each other, with both teams sporting balanced offenses. I like UCLA’s defense a little more, and I have a little more faith in Dorian Thompson-Robinson at quarterback. The Ducks could be on the verge of going from CFP contender to not even making the PAC-12 Championship Game.
UCLA 38, Oregon 31
LSU v. No. 12 Ole Miss (-9) - 3:30 PM EST - CBS
Even before the season began we all had this game circled as one that could get really, really weird. Nothing has changed in that regard. If anything, this game is going to be even stranger than we could ever have imagined. LSU is coming off a win over Florida that resulted in the Tigers dismissing Ed Orgeron at the end of the season, while Ole Miss is still ducking for cover from projectiles that were thrown at them during Saturday’s game against Tennessee.
I really hope that Lane Kiffin wears the golf ball that was chucked at him in Neyland Stadium as some sort of necklace for the rest of the season. Kiffykins is going to need all the help he can get this week since Matt Corral has to feeling awful. Kiffin apparently channeled Urban Meyer and turned Corral into J.T. Barrett last week, as the Ole Miss quarterback racked up 30 carries against the Volunteers.
I don’t think we see a very crisp Ole Miss team on Saturday in Oxford. The Rebels are coming off a tough three-game stretch, and they still have to travel to Auburn next week, followed by games against Liberty and Texas A&M. Kiffin might want to be a little more conservative to try and protect Corral. LSU will give a spirited effort in support of their soon-to-be departed coach, but Ole Miss just barely slips by the Tigers.
Ole Miss 41, LSU 38
Clemson v. No. 23 Pittsburgh (-3) - 3:30 PM EST - ESPN
We are living in a world where Pitt is ranked and Clemson is not. Just let that sink in for a minute. As if that wasn’t enough to try and digest, Kenny Pickett has 17 more touchdown passes than D.J. Uiagalelei. I swear that I’m not making these things up.
I just want to know where the offense is going to come from for Clemson in this game. I know it’s not easy to replace talents like Trevor Lawrence and Travis Etienne, but something isn’t right with the Clemson offense. The Tigers have scored at least 20 points in just two games this year, and one of those games went to double overtime.
I’m always wary of Pitt’s ability to totally Pitt a game. I just don’t think it happens here. Pickett is playing too well to let the Panthers fall apart here. Clemson’s struggles continue. I’m sure Dabo will blame NIL and Fansville for why his team is broken now.
Pitt 30, Clemson 20
No. 22 San Diego State v. Air Force (-3.5) - 7:00 PM EST - CBS Sports Network
There’s going to be at least one undefeated team that is going to lose this weekend. My money is on it being San Diego State. The Aztecs nearly suffered their first loss last week, barely surviving in double overtime against San Jose State. Aside from a win over Utah, I haven’t been all that impressed with Brady Hoke’s team.
This game might not take more than two hours. Both teams love to run the football. Air Force is averaging 336 yards per game, while San Diego State rushes for 215 yards per contest. The Falcons and Aztecs both give up pretty much nothing on the ground, with neither team surrendering more than 92 yards per game.
A win over Air Force would be San Diego State’s ninth straight win over the Falcons. Unfortunately for Hoke, San Diego State isn’t leaving Fort Collins with a win. Air Force will use their rushing attack, along with a little help from altitude to send the Aztecs home with their first blemish of the season.
Air Force 23, San Diego State 14
No. 18 NC State (-3) v. Miami (FL) - 7:30 PM EST - ESPN2
It would be interesting to see where NC State would be sitting right now if they hadn’t lost to Mississippi State earlier in the season. The Wolfpack not only have one of the best defenses in the country, they also have gotten strong quarterback play from Devin Leary, who has 15 touchdown passes and just two interceptions. Last week NC State went up to Boston College and had little trouble with a solid Golden Eagles squad.
I know it’s easy to think that Miami must have played pretty well to only lose by a field goal without D’Eriq King to North Carolina last week. Look a little deeper and you’ll see a Miami team that is in trouble. North Carolina really should have won that game by at least three touchdowns. The defense of the Tar Heels is awful and Tyler Van Dyke still somehow threw three interceptions.
These teams are trending in the opposite directions. NC State has their eyes on a spot in the ACC Championship Game, while Miami already has to feel like they’re just waiting for the season to end. If King was still healthy I might give Miami a shot to pull the upset at home. I just can’t do that with Van Dyke against this tough Wolfpack defense.
NC State 27, Miami 17