After a week off, the No. 5 Ohio State Buckeyes return to the field as they travel to Bloomington, Ind. to face off against Tom Allen’s Indiana Hoosiers. The game will kick off at 7:30 p.m. ET (or thereabouts) on ABC.
According to DraftKings Sportsbook, the Buckeyes are a 21-point favorite and the over/under is set at 60 points, and friends, if I were a betting man, I would be laying the points and probably avoiding the total, because I think it’s pretty spot on; especially with uncertainty around the Buckeye defense.
The Buckeyes lead the country in points per game with 48.5 while IU clocks in at 107th at 22.3 ppg; there’s your cover if everything plays out by the averages. Indiana is allowing 26.8 each time out, but has held their three Big Ten opponents —Iowa, Penn State, Michigan State — to 34, 24, and 20 respectively. Given how pathetic some of those offenses have looked against other opponents this season, I feel pretty good picking the Bucks to score at least in the mid-40s.
However, as the OSU defense has improved in recent weeks against sub-par offenses, it is distinctly possible that they could hold the Hoosiers to single digits tonight. Against those aforementioned B1G squads, IU has averaged just seven points per game (including a shutout against the Nits), and while I’m not 100% sure that the Buckeye defense is as good as those other units, I’m not not sure at this point.
So, even if C.J. Stroud and the OSU offense take care of business, I don’t know that I trust the Hoosiers to do enough to keep up their end of the scoring bargain.
Bill Connelly’s SP+ has Ohio State not covering and the game to go as an under, but we have been going on two+ years of SP+ undervaluing OSU’s scoring potential, so I feel pretty good taking the Buckeyes -21 tonight.
WEEK 8 SP+ PICKS— Bill Connelly (@ESPN_BillC) October 20, 2021
Cincy 39, Navy 10
Mich 34, Northwestern 13
Wisconsin 27, Purdue 18 (feels more ike 17-8)
Clemson 26, Pitt 25
Ole Miss 37, LSU 28
ISU 39, OSU 29
UCLA 32, Oregon 29
Bama 35, Tenn 21 (no exploding Tenn QB adjustment)
Ohio St 38, Indiana 19
ND 34, USC 23 pic.twitter.com/VNRVIMSoly
So, what bets are you putting down on this game? You taking or laying the points? You going over or under? Any props you’re picking up for tonight’s game? Let us know in the comments below.