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Gambling, analytic predictions for Ohio State vs. Michigan State

What do the bookmakers and numbers geeks think of tomorrow’s noon matchup?

Ohio State v Michigan State Photo by Gregory Shamus/Getty Images

Well, folks, things are getting serious for the No. 4 Ohio State football Buckeyes as they head into their penultimate regular season game of the 2021 season. As there always is in college football — especially with this fanbase — there have been plenty of ups and downs; from calling for coaches’ jobs and the demanding for players to be benched to having a historically prolific offense and the emergence of potentially generational players arriving on the scene.

But, with just two games remaining on the schedule — both against teams from That Mitten State Up North — OSU has their playoff and national championship destiny still in front of them.

On Saturday at 12 noon ET, the Buckeyes will host the No. 7 Michigan State Spartans in ABC. After opening as a 19.5-point favorite, DraftKings Sportsbook currently has the Buckeyes as a 19-point favorite with an over/under set at 68.5 points.

In some of their more interesting props, DraftKings has set a line at 44.5 points for the Buckeyes (+100 for the over, -130 for the under) and 23.5 for Sparty (-130 for the over, +100 for the under). The sportsbook also has odds on who will score first: MSU is at +160 while OSU is coming in at -200. The first half line is set at at Ohio State -10.5 and the total at 35.5.

In some more analytical analysis, SP+ predicted the Buckeyes to win by a score of 39-22 with an 84% win probability. The NCAA Game Simulator has Ohio State winning by an average score of 39.6 to 24.6 and winning 80.3% of all simulations, including 40.8% of all sims by more than 20 points.

In their preview video, the College Football Nerds have OSU winning by a score of 41-31, while Daniel is predicting a 44-30 victory for the Scarlet and Grey and Josh is picking 52-34.

I will have my prediction in tomorrow’s “Brutally Honest To-Do List,” but needless to say, I am erring closer to Josh than I am Daniel.

What do you think the game will look like tomorrow?